经济学人财经 || 蛋有学问(写作天团剩最后一席)

一天一篇经济学人 2020-09-17 12:30

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导读


估计很多小伙伴会问,这最后一席怎么还没招到呢?其实原来是已经招满了的,但是具体沟通后,有小伙伴因为时间凑不上又或者教学经验缺乏等问题无法参与这个项目,所以重新招收最后一席,具体要求雅思总分以及写作单项都是8分以上,且需要有雅思托福写作授课经验,请有兴趣且负责任的小伙伴赶紧私信小编(VX:396196827)吧,为了大别野,冲鸭!机不可失,失不再来。(此贴长期有效)


感谢思维导图作者

Ashley,女 ,金融硕士,爱宠物 爱英语,爱旅游,经济学人粉丝


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听力|精读|翻译|词组

Eggheads

蛋有学问

英文部分选自经济学人20200911期财经版块

Eggheads

蛋有学问


What the world can learn from Chinese futures trading

从中国的期货交易中,世人能学到什么?


“So long as you think about what others are thinking about, and stick to your trading strategy, you can always be successful.” This encouraging, if dubious, sliver of market wisdom was proffered on September 3rd by Zhou Chengji, a Chinese investment adviser, during a two-hour online tutorial. China is hardly alone in having a raucous community of would-be market gurus and day traders. But Mr Zhou’s focus was on an asset that makes China look rather unusual: egg futures, the only ones of their kind in the world nowadays.


只要你想别人所想,坚持自己的交易策略,你就总能成功。”93日,中国投资顾问周成基在一次为期两小时的在线辅导中提供了这一鼓舞人心、却又备受质疑的市场智慧。潜在的市场专家和日内交易员构成喧嚣的市场并非中国独有。但周成基此次线上辅导的重点是一项让中国看起来很不寻常的资产:鸡蛋期货,当今世界上中国独有的期货。


For punters with strong views about whether hens will be productive this autumn and whether people will crave egg-fried noodles and the like, China is the place to be. All they need do is contact local brokerages and put down a 4,000 yuan ($585) deposit. Going long eggs (ie, betting prices will rise) was, briefly, one of the trades of the summer, with futures soaring 65% from late May to late July. Since then the market has cracked, prices tumbling more than 20%. Turnover is extraordinarily high. Investors buy and sell roughly 3m tonnes in egg futures every day, about a tenth of the total that China actually consumes in a full year. The rights to a single egg may, in effect, pass through a few dozen hands before it lands in boiling water.


对于那些对今年秋天母鸡是否高产人们是否会想吃鸡蛋炒面等持强烈见解的投机者来说,中国是最佳选择。他们只需联系当地的经纪人并缴纳4000元保证金。简而言之,做多鸡蛋期货(即价格看涨)是夏季的交易之一,七月末期货价格较五月末上涨了65%。自那以后,市场崩盘,鸡蛋期货价格暴跌超过了20%。换手率也非常高。投资者们每天买卖大约300万吨的鸡蛋期货,约占中国全年实际鸡蛋消费总量的十分之一。实际上,一枚鸡蛋的所有权在煮熟前可能几经转手。


All this makes it tempting to dismiss Chinese futures as a hotbed of speculative excess. Retail traders do play a much bigger role on the country’s commodity exchanges—in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou—than in Chicago or London, which have long been the world leaders in, respectively, agriculture and metals. Officials estimated that in 2016 about 85% of open positions on Chinese exchanges were held by individuals, compared with less than 15% in America, where institutions dominate trading. Nevertheless, the very immaturity of the Chinese market also reveals some enduring truths about futures that are obscured by the smoother functioning of century-old exchanges.


诸如种种让人们忍不住将中国期货视为投机过剩的温床。相比长期分别在农业以及金属交易中占据世界级领导地位的芝加哥或伦敦的商品交易所,散户交易在上海、大连以及郑州的商品交易中的确发挥更大的作用。官方预估表明:2016年中国交易所的未平仓合约中约有85%为个人持有,而在机构主导交易的美国,这一比例不到15%。然而,正是中国市场的不成熟同时揭示了一些关于期货的不朽真理,而这些真理已被拥有百年历史的交易所更为顺畅的运作掩盖。


注释:

It is tempting to do sth. 

used for saying that something seems correct or sensible but is probably wrong.


Start with the most basic, the need to hedge. Futures are a tool for producers to guard against prices plunging and for consumers to guard against them soaring. In the West this can look quite straightforward because market power is so concentrated. The top four steel companies accounted for about 80% of production in America in 2017 versus just 20% or so in China. Fragmented spot markets make it harder for futures to serve as a benchmark. Yet it is dangerous to operate without a pricing backstop. So China has been rushing to expand its universe of futures. In the past two years alone it has launched more than ten new contracts, from crude oil and stainless steel to apples and red dates. It will take time to establish their credibility.


从最基本的对冲需求说起,期货是生产商用来预防价格暴跌、消费者预防价格飞涨的工具。这在西方国家看起来非常直白,因为市场力量相当集中。2017年,前四大钢铁公司约占美国钢铁总产量的80%,而在中国仅占20%左右。分散的现货市场使期货更难发挥市场基准的作用。但若没有价格支撑进行操作是很危险的。因此,中国一直急于扩大期货标的物产品范围。仅过去两年,就推出了十多份新合同,从原油、不锈钢到苹果、红枣。建立新期货产品的可信度需要时间。


If China still has much to learn about futures, there is something to be said for its trading intensity. Of the 20 most active contracts in the world last year, 14 were on Chinese exchanges, according to the Futures Industry Association, a global trade body. Some of that is because of double counting. It can also reflect the swirling pool of money trapped in China by capital controls. Nevertheless, there are limits to the potential irrationality in futures trading because ultimately the underlying commodities are due for physical delivery. Futures contracts thus converge with spot prices as they near expiry. Two other factors help explain China’s trading volume. Lot sizes are generally small (for example, five tonnes for copper futures in Shanghai, compared with 25 tonnes in London). And ordinary investors have easy access through their brokerage accounts. Institutional traders in China love the liquidity that results from this. It eliminates the risk of being unable to enter or exit a position because of a lack of trading.


关于期货中国还有很多要学习的地方,但其在交易活跃度方面却是领先的。期货业协会是一家全球交易机构,其数据显示去年全球20个最活跃的合约中,有14个在中国交易所进行。尽管这个结果是部分重复计算所致,但它仍反映了被资本管制滞留在中国打转的资金。由于基础商品终究将进行实物交割,期货交易中的潜在不合理性是有限的,且期货合约在即将到期时会与现货价格趋近一致。还有两个因素有助于解释中国的期货交易量:合约规模通常很小(例如,上海的铜期货为5吨,伦敦则为25吨);普通投资者可以通过其证券投资账户轻松参与交易。中国的机构交易员很喜欢由此产生的流动性,因为它消除了由于缺乏交易而无法买进或卖出的风险。


注释:

there is...... to be said for, used with words such as something, a lot, much, etc.indicating that something has advantages which deserve to be considered.


There is another reason why institutional traders like China. They can profit with relative ease. Commodity futures illustrate how cloistering a financial system from the rest of the world leads to distortions. Darin Friedrichs of StoneX, a commodities brokerage, says that easily disprovable rumours can cause price swings; unfounded reports of a Brazilian port closure recently drove up soyabean futures. Traders relish their “import-arb” windows, when prices of Chinese futures exceed those of their global counterparts, making it worthwhile to arbitrage by buying abroad and selling onshore.


机构交易员喜欢中国还有另一个原因,他们可以相对轻松地获利。大宗商品期货展现了与世界其他地区隔绝会如何导致金融体系扭曲。商品期货公司StoneX的达林·弗里德里希斯(Darin Friedrichs)称,很容易证伪的谣言也会引起价格波动,如近期巴西港口关闭的毫无根据的新闻报道推高了大豆期货。交易员们喜欢进口套利手段:中国期货超过全球同业价格时,国外买入,在岸卖出进行套利就是值得的。


注:
1. cloister: seclude from the world in or as if in a cloister

eg. She cloistered herself in the office

2. relish: If you relish something, you get a lot of enjoyment from it. 喜爱; 乐于; 玩赏

eg. I relish the challenge of doing jobs that others turn down.

我喜欢接受挑战做别人拒绝做的工作。

3. arbitrage: In finance, arbitrage is the activity of buying securities or currency in one financial market and selling it at a profit in another. 套利


Slowly, regulators are dismantling the walls, allowing more international firms to trade in China. Futures with international counterparts such as oil and corn are starting to align more with global prices. For the adventurous, though, there are always eggs.


监管机构正在慢慢地拆除壁垒,允许更多国际公司来中国交易。石油和玉米等国际期货开始与全球价格趋近一致。而对于喜欢冒险的人来说,鸡蛋总会有的。


翻译组:

Martina,女,爱电影爱生活,爱金融经济
Jerry,男,金融专业硕士,经济学人铁粉
Annie Y,女,翻译硕士,IR一枚,爱别处的生活
Summer,女,QE在职,梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯


校对组:

Chloe,女,翻译硕士,经济学人忠实读者

Jessie Lulu,女,金融从业者,爱阳光,爱细雨,爱经济学人

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观点|评论|思考


本次感想

Alan,男,金融工程硕士,经济学人粉丝

(1) 开放程度相对不高一直以来是我国期货市场的特点。和股票市场一样,监管当局对待期货市场也是循序渐进逐步开放的态度,股市方面有沪港通伦沪通,期货市场则是逐步让国际大宗投资公司进入。这样的特点导致了国内国外对同一品种的期货出现定价不同的情况,而因为一些限制交易的规定阻碍了套利的发生,导致这种价差持续存在。

 

(2) 文章讲到期货市场上散户占比较高的现象。股票市场上散户占比高是很明显的,期货市场我不了解。我观察下来,期货市场还有一个特点是,机构投资者、交易员的整体要求要比股票市场低。期货交易公司在招交易员的时候一般不会有什么门槛,但是买方基金公司的要求会高得多,公募更甚。这个特点和散户占比高带来的效应是类似的,导致期货市场上有大量的mis-pricing存在,羊群效应和冲动情绪会更明显。一直以来期货市场主要还是以消息面、技术面、基本面来做决策,现在CTA策略开始在期货市场流行起来,量化交易开始进入大宗商品交易领域了,市场会相对比有更少的赚钱机会。

 

(3) 单笔成交量相比其他国家的商品交易所要小,导致了准入门槛较低。一方面可能会有更多散户在市场里,另一方面因为单笔成交量被拆得更小,其实流动性更好了。充裕的流动性是保证交易量可以维持在高位。

 

(4) 由于资本管制,一些资金积蓄在国内。此外叠加中国人的高储蓄率,这可能是国内A股、期货市场(如果是的话)散户占比高的原因。具体来讲,老百姓积蓄了钱,要找地方投资啊不然通胀率那么高钱很容易贬值,银行存款、理财产品利率又低,于是老百姓总得寻找更好的资金出路,因为国内金融业发展起步晚等问题,缺少相应的投资渠道给老百姓,投资需求和投资标的严重不匹配,于是商品房和A 股开始承担起老百姓主要的投资需求了。现在监管政策的做法是开始把老百姓的资金统统往公募、财富管理、银行理财赶,希望老百姓把储蓄的钱交给专业机构打理,同时强调房住不炒,并且开始对房地产公司融资行为严监管,严查明股实债,不止国企的高杠杆是潜在风险需要降杠杆,房地产企业的高杠杆激进融资的行为也开始被遏制。但是老百姓的思维短时间还是很难改变的,引导老百姓接受代客理财还需要时间,而少了房地产投资这一块,老百姓的钱会不会暂时无处安放?目前来看,互联网金融公司最先盯上这一块肥肉,而这又引出另外一个问题:互联网金融公司的投资能力是不是能跟得上?


4


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